Principles and Concepts of Agent-Based Modelling for Developing Geospatial Simulations

The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded. The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded

Developing a prototype agent-based pedestrian evacuation model to explore the evacuation of King?s Cross St Pancras underground station

London?s King?s Cross St. Pancras underground station has been the unfortunate location of two major incidents within the last twenty years. A fire in November 1987 and the terrorist bombing in July 2005 both resulted in the loss of lives, and the injury of many people. The implementation of measures to mitigate or neutralise the effect of all possible future incidents at this site is unrealistic. The adoption of preparedness measures is crucial for the emergency services to limit the loss of life and property, and to improve the response phase of an incident. King?s Cross St. Pancras underground station is currently being redeveloped, partly to mitigate the remaining few operational and safety issues identified after the 1987 fire, and also to allow for a predicted increase in passenger use. Despite these modifications and improvements, both the surrounding built environment and the station will necessarily remain complex structures. The local emergency services have several duties placed upon themselves in the event of a major incident at this site, and a computer based model capable of examining the effects of different incident assumptions or contingencies has been identified as potentially beneficial to the local National Health Service (NHS) resilience planning department.The specific aim of this paper is to provide the reader with an overview of this research project. To begin, the aims and deliverables are identified. In light of these, principles of pedestrian evacuation modelling are presented, highlighting a shift in approaches: from aggregate movement, to individual-level movement and behavioural models. The feasibility of using a proprietary pedestrian evacuation model to achieve the research goal is discussed. This is followed by an agenda for developing an agent-based pedestrian evacuation model using the Repast toolkit. This paper concludes with progress of the prototype model to date. London?s King?s Cross St. Pancras underground station has been the unfortunate location of two major incidents within the last twenty years. A fire in November 1987 and the terrorist bombing in July 2005 both resulted in the loss of lives, and the injury of many people. The implementation of measures to mitigate or neutralise the effect of all possible future incidents at this site is unrealistic. The adoption of preparedness measures is crucial for the emergency services to limit the loss of life and property, and to improve the response phase of an incident. King?s Cross St. Pancras underground station is currently being redeveloped, partly to mitigate the remaining few operational and safety issues identified after the 1987 fire, and also to allow for a predicted increase in passenger use. Despite these modifications and improvements, both the surrounding built environment and the station will necessarily remain complex structures. The local emergency services have several duties placed upon themselves in the event of a major incident at this site, and a computer based model capable of examining the effects of different incident assumptions or contingencies has been identified as potentially beneficial to the local National Health Service (NHS) resilience planning department.The specific aim of this paper is to provide the reader with an overview of this research project. To begin, the aims and deliverables are identified. In light of these, principles of pedestrian evacuation modelling are presented, highlighting a shift in approaches: from aggregate movement, to individual-level movement and behavioural models. The feasibility of using a proprietary pedestrian evacuation model to achieve the research goal is discussed. This is followed by an agenda for developing an agent-based pedestrian evacuation model using the Repast toolkit. This paper concludes with progress of the prototype model to date